User talk:SAF Brazil

Roadmap Creators: Gabriel Ruscalleda, Emilia Ospina Arango and Dawit Dagnaw

Time Stamp: Updated 10 October 2024

Technology Roadmap Sections and Deliverables

Our technology roadmap identifier is shown as:

• 2BSSAF - Brazil Solution - Sustainable Aviation Fuel

This indicates that we are dealing with a “level 2” roadmap at the product level, where “level 1” would indicate a market level roadmap, "level 2" would indicate our SAF Production and “level 3” or “level 4” would indicate an individual technology roadmap.

Roadmap Overview

The aviation industry, currently responsible for approximately 800-850 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions annually, faces a significant challenge as demand for air transportation services is projected to double in the coming decades. [1] Despite the inherent difficulties of decarbonizing its fossil-fuel-dependent business model, the global airline industry has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. [1] The primary source of these emissions is the combustion of Conventional Aviation Fuel (CAF), also known as Jet Fuel, which powers aircraft engines. In response to this challenge, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) have emerged as a crucial milestone in the sector's decarbonization path. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, low-carbon alternative fuels derived from sustainable feedstocks and production processes could potentially reduce emissions by up to 94% compared to CAF, which has an emission factor of 89 gCO2e/MJ.[6] The potential impact of SAFs is substantial, with estimates suggesting they could contribute up to 65% of industry-wide emission reduction targets, [1] making them a key component in the aviation sector's efforts to achieve sustainability and meet its ambitious climate goals.

Brazil's abundant natural resources position it as a key player in the future global sustainable fuel economy, particularly in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production. [] The country's strengths align with multiple decarbonization levers,[3] including:

  -	Nature Based Solutions in reforestation of vast degraded/deforested lands to produce 1st or 3rd generation feedstock

  -	Sustainable Agriculture for production of 1st and 3rd generation feedstock using Regenerative Agriculture practices

  -	Renewable Energies to power production with clean energy matrix, offering SAF with higher emission reduction potential

Global SAF production is expected to reach 1.9 billion liters in 2024, three times the production capacity of 2023 estimated at ~500,000 liters per year. [] In a decade, this is forecasted to evolve so that Brazil and US produce equal amounts of SAF (50 B L/year each). [7] While Brazil's domestic SAF demand is estimated at 8 billion liters per year, the US is expected to require 120 billion liters annually, positioning Brazil in a unique position to become a supplier for the global market with its substantial production surplus[7]

Considering Brazil's agricultural strengths and competitive advantages, [3] the most promising short-term SAF production pathways are HEFA and ATJ, leveraging well-established ethanol infrastructure, while long-term prospects (subject to technological progress) include hydrogen and e-fuels produced with renewable energy. The development of Brazil's SAF ecosystem will largely depend on public policy, with positive signals from Brazil’s government through the approval of "Lei do Combustível do Futuro," which mandates increased use of biofuels and aims for a 10% reduction in airline emissions by 2037. [4]

This roadmap explores the dilemma of SAF scalability in Brazil, focusing on two critical aspects: availability and affordability. The feedstock supply and production capacity are analyzed within the country, and innovative strategies are proposed to enhance scalability. Additionally, economic competitiveness of SAF will be evaluated and compared to conventional jet fuel, considering factors such as production costs, market incentives, and policy support in Brazil.

The figure below contains graphic representation of the SAF supply chain from the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) can be produced through various technological pathways using diverse feedstock combinations, resulting in different types of SAF. Currently, more than 11 production pathways and multiple feedstocks are under active research, with new methods and potential materials expected to emerge in the coming years. Several pathways have successfully produced drop-in fuels that meet quality standards and are compatible with existing aircraft, airplane systems, and pipeline infrastructure. Although successful test flights have been conducted using 100% SAF (neat SAF), current usage primarily involves blending SAF with conventional jet fuel in varying proportions, partly due to supply constraints. The aviation industry continues to explore and refine SAF production methods, focusing on expanding viable feedstocks, improving production efficiency, and increasing SAF yield and quality. For a comprehensive understanding of feedstocks and their associated pathways, refer to the illustration provided below.

　 Three generations of feedstocks are defined on the IATA SAF Handbook based on their usage chronology, emission reduction potential, sustainability criteria, environmental impact, and availability:

1.First Generation (1G): Includes food-grade fats and oils like canola, palm, and soybean. While technologically mature and commercially scalable, they pose sustainability issues such as competing with food supply and high land usage.

2.Second Generation (2G): Comprises waste fats, oils, and greases (FOGs) like used cooking oil and inedible animal fats. These are more sustainable than 1G due to higher emission reduction and no additional land usage, but are more expensive due to limited supply.

3.Third Generation (3G): Encompasses biological/agricultural wastes and energy crops from degraded land, including municipal solid waste, forestry residues, and algae oils. They offer the most positive environmental impact and cost benefits but require advanced processing technologies.

Design Structure Matrix (DSM) Allocation

The tree below shows the relationship between other technologies related to the SAF. It is focus on the enabling technologies to SAF, considering key feedstocks and processes. Starting from our main goal to decarbonize aviation (1ACO), 2SAF plays an important role and can be decomposed in multiple technologies. Focusing on feedstock classification, SAF can be made out of two main technologies including Biofuels (3BFU) making technologies and e-fuels (3FU) making technologies such as 4HEF, 4ATJ, 4FTS and 4PTL. These technologies possess a dependency with specific feedstock technologies and processes such as 5FFO, 5HPS, 5WFO, 5ALG, 5NFW, 5AJC, 5MSW, 5FAR, 5CNG and 5WCO.

The DSM below shows the connections of SAF to Level 3, 4 and 5 technologies. These connections will be presented in more detailed in the next section using Object-Process-Model (OPM).

Roadmap Model using OPM

The Object-Process-Model (OPM) of the 2BSSAF - Brazil Solution - Sustainable Aviation Fuel roadmap is presented in the figures with the Object-Process-Language (OPL) below. The OPM was divided in two OPMs: Level 1 and Level 2. Level 1 focuses on the main stakeholders including the Feedstock Producer, Fuel Producers, Government (policy, guidelines, sponsorship), Regulators and Certifiers while Level 2 focuses on the feedstocks and SAF making technologies.

Level 1 OPM

Level 2 OPM

Figures of Merit

The table below shows a list of FOMs focus on productivity, scalability, accessibility & cost of pathways for evaluation of SAF’s production ecosystem.

Category	Figure of Merit	Units	Description
Competitiveness	SAF unit cost	[USD/ton]	Market cost of SAF per unit of volume or energy
	Cost per reduced ton	[USD / tCO2e​]	Incremental cost per ton of carbon equivalent reduced vs CAF
	Investment potential	[USD / tCO2e​]	Financing opportunity per potential unit output of technology
	Installation cost per unit	[USD / L]	Cost of deploying SAF production infrastructure relative to capability
Efficiency	Energy efficiency	[%]	Energy input to produce SAF vs energy output in SAF
Productivity	Feedstock crop yield	[Ton / ha]	Crop yield in volume produced per unit area
	Feedstock availability	[Ton / year]	Crop availability in volume produced per year
	SAF conversion yield	[%]	SAF produced with relation to total refinery biofuel production
Performance	Energy density	[MJ/L]	Energy content per unit volume of fuel
	Blend ratio of pathway/feedstock	[%]	Volume SAF relative to total volume of fuel after blend
Sustainability	Carbon savings potential	[tCO2e / L]	Potential reduction in emissions for use of SAF vs CAF as baseline
	Carbon emissions	[gCO2e / MJ]	Life-cycle carbon equivalent emissions to generate unit of fuel

Technical Model

DESCRIPTION OF THE TABLE & MODEL (XXXXX)

Decision Variable	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Feedstock Detail	FFO - Food-grade Fats & Oils	WFO - Waste Fats & Oil	ALG - Algae Oil	NFW - Non-Crop Food Waste	MSW - Municipal Solid Waste	FAR - Forest & Agricultural Residues	CNG - Coal, Natural Gas, Biomass	WCO - CO₂ & H₂O
Feedstock Generation	1st	2nd	3rd	3rd	3rd	3rd	3rd	3rd
Feedstock Type	Bio-Fuels	Bio-Fuels	Bio-Fuels	Bio-Fuels	Bio-Fuels	Bio-Fuels	Bio-Fuels	E-fuels
Process	Coprocessing	Coprocessing	Coprocessing	Processing	Processing	Processing	Processing	Processing
Pathways	HEFA	HEFA	HEFA, AtJ, FT	HEFA, AtJ, FT	FT	AtJ & FT	FT	PtL
Carbon Intensity (g CO₂/MJ)	15-30	10-20	0-15	15-30	10-30	5-20	70-90	0
Energy Density (MJ/kg)	~37	~37	~35	~37	~36	~37	~38	~40
Production Cost ($/L)	$1.0 - 1.5	$0.7 - 1.2	$2.0 - 3.5	$1.5 - 2.5	$1.0 - 2.0	$1.2 - 2.0	$0.8 - 1.5	$3.0+
Blending Ratio	Up to 50%	Up to 50%	Up to 100%	Up to 50%	Up to 50%	Up to 50%	Up to 50%	Up to 100%
Production Scalability	Small to Medium	Medium	Small	Medium	Medium to Large	Medium to Large	Large	Small

References

[1] “Developing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).” Accessed October 6, 2024. https://www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability/sustainable-aviation-fuels/

[2] IATA, “SAF Handbook”, May 2024. https://www.iata.org/contentassets/d13875e9ed784f75bac90f000760e998/saf-handbook.pdf

[3] BCG, “Brazil Climate Report 2024”, September 2024. https://web-assets.bcg.com/60/86/f21ad8b64238aac139c9c95624e3/brazil-climate-summit-2024.pdf

[4] Portal da Câmara dos Deputados. “Entra em vigor a ‘Lei do Combustível do Futuro’ - Notícias.” Accessed October 9, 2024. https://www.camara.leg.br/noticias/1101627-entra-em-vigor-a-lei-do-combustivel-do-futuro/.

[5] U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2022. SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap: Flight Plan for Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/beto-saf-gc-roadmap-report-sept-2022.pdf

[6] Litoral Press. “El Mercurio,” April 18, 2024. https://www.litoralpress.cl/sitio/Prensa_Detalles.cshtml?LPKey=NIKYMS2WMDPQQYZFDBKTCTO4BRTUQCQSU6C2XUEHIL5WPDACR6LQA6OINT3J5EFUEQBSBYX4DNSIA.

[7] “Brasil Pode Ser a ‘Arábia Saudita Do SAF’, Prevê CEO Da Airbus - AgFeed.” Accessed October 7, 2024. https://agfeed.com.br/negocios/brasil-pode-ser-a-arabia-saudita-do-saf-preve-ceo-da-airbus/#.